Commercial Logic

SAF Scarcity + MRV Pressure Creates the tLCAF Window.

SAF will not be available at scale or at reasonable cost in time for the first non‑CO₂ reports. tLCAF offers a refinery‑based, scalable path to contrail and SOx mitigation at a demo‑phase cost of 2.5× Jet A‑1, competitive against SAF and many avoidance strategies.

Why SAF and Rerouting Cannot Carry the Load

Market Constraints

SAF: Supply-Side Failure

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Scarcity Critical
  • Forecast 2025: ~1.9 million tonnes, only ~0.6% of global demand.
  • Price Premium: 2–5× Jet A‑1, higher in mandated markets.
  • Blend Wall: Most pathways capped at 50% for seal integrity.
"Airlines will buy enough SAF to meet legal CO₂ mandates—not enough to run a fleet‑wide non‑CO₂ strategy."

Navigational Avoidance

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Operational Limits
  • CO₂ Penalty: Typically 0.5–2% extra fuel burn.
  • Capacity Crunch: Widespread rerouting can reduce airspace capacity by up to 20%.
  • Uncertainty: Forecast errors produce costly diversions with no benefit.
"Avoidance is a powerful tool, but cannot be the primary lever at scale in congested airspace."

Mitigation Strategies Per Tonne

Comparative Economics
Strategy Cost Basis Non‑CO₂ Benefit CO₂ Impact 2025 Viability
Jet A‑1 (Baseline) ~$700/tonne None (High Impact) Baseline High (Penalized)
SAF (HEFA) ~$2,500–$3,000 High Reduction Lifecycle Reduction Low (Supply <1%)
Navigational Avoidance ~$1.75–$14 / tCO₂e High Potential Positive Penalty Low (ATC Limits)
tLCAF (Demo Phase) ~$1,750/tonne (≈2.5×) High (Contrails & SOx) Neutral High (Drop-In)

From Demo Premium to Cost Parity

Scale Economics

Pilot Phase: Demo Pricing

Current State

During the flight demonstration phase, tLCAF carries an expected premium of about 2.5× Jet A‑1 to cover small‑batch production and test costs. Grants and cost‑sharing arrangements can absorb a significant portion of this delta for launch partners.

Refinery Scale: Cost Parity

Target State

The underlying production model is refinery‑based, not feedstock‑limited. At scale, the target is cost parity with fossil Jet A‑1, unlike SAF pathways that structurally sit at 2–4× price multiples due to constrained feedstocks and complex supply chains.